The security landscape within Nigeria is blemished by violence, crime and other crises that threatens the very fabric of Nigerian society and represents an existential threat to the country’s statehood.
The growing insecurity isn’t emanating from one cause; rather a kaleidoscope of political violence is coalescing to destabilize the country. This piece will briefly surveil the landscape and provide a portrait on each of Nigeria’s greatest security threats. Before though, it is worth noting that youth unemployment currently sits at 32.5% and the country is experiencing its worst economic downturn in 27 years, in no small part due to COVID-19. Naturally, this has been linked by some for exacerbating insecurity within the country.
Jihadism/ Militant Islamist Groups
Jihadist violence is spreading across the north east of the country and continues to be Nigeria’s most pressing security threat. Violent attacks linked to Boko Haram and its offshoot the Islamic State in West Africa (ISWA) have almost doubled since 2015, when the government launched operations to oust the groups from their territory. According to the UN, by the end of 2020, jihadist violence had caused 350,000 deaths and forcefully displaced millions from their home. The rise of both groups and its expanding influence attests to the poverty across the region as it provides fertile ground for its extremist ideologies.
The groups have since retreated from urban centres and have primarily operated in the more desolate regions of Borno State, including the rugged Sambisa Forest Cameroon’s northwest mountains and the friki wetlands by Lake Chad in the southwest. From their secluded positions, both groups have waged guerrilla warfare on towns and villages with a strategy to isolate and and cut off the state capital, Maiduguri. Through sabotaging power grids, planting landmines, attacking highway travellers, and establishing permanent checkpoints, Boko Haram and ISWA have effectively sealed Borno off from the rest Nigeria. Attacks have also inhibited food production and disrupted trade routes that has contributed to a spike food prices by over 50 percent across Borno.
Both groups have proven impervious to Nigerian’s security forces operations, although accusations surrounding the methods of the military’s operations has generated concern. Civilians have alleged that Nigeria’s armed forces of razing rather than protecting villages, and corroborating with the militant groups.
Herder-Farmer Conflict
Herder-farmer conflicts, also known as Fulani Herdsman terrorism, refers to the oft violent disputes over land resources between Muslim Fulani herders and predominantly Christian farmers across Nigeria, although most acutely in the north central.
The violence encapsulates many of the growing challenges that climate change poses and is symptomatic of the increasing strain it places on food and water security. As the Sahara Desert spreads and desertification encroaches greater swathes of land, herders are forced to travel further south to find pasture; invariably flaring disputes over precious resources with its landowners. Although the violence is largely motivated by economic and environmental factors, the attacks have also acquired ethnic and religious dimensions with attacks occurring in northwest Nigeria against farmers who are mostly Hausa people.
On July 1, gunmen killed 7 herders in Jos South, Plateau after on June 26 herders killed one and kidnapped one in Offa, Kwara. Attacks have also occurred in the northwest against farmers who are mainly Hausa people.
Thousands of people have died since these attacks began. Sedentary rural farming communities are often the target of attacks due to the perceived . There are fears that this conflict will spill over into other West African countries, destabilizing an already precarious region further.
Banditry and Kidnappings
The kidnappings of schoolchildren from classrooms in northern Nigeria has repeatedly drew global condemnation and galvanized public outrage and protest. However by every indication, the country’s lucrative kidnapping industry continues to thrive irrespectively, as regions previously unscathed from the attacks become increasingly vulnerable.
The crisis exemplifies an overarching commonality: the limited capacity and capability of Nigerian armed forces to quell instability and ameliorate a deteriorating security situation.
More than 1,000 students have been abducted from their schools since December 2020, many only released after thousands of dollars are paid as ransom. These attackers raid villages, kidnap civilians and burn down houses.
Attacks by bandits, as they are commonly known, have forced thousands internal refugees to seek shelter elsewhere across the country. The north-west remains the focal point for these attacks. In Zamfara alone, over 3,000 people have been killed since 2012. Hundreds of schools were closed down following abductions at schools in Zamfara and Niger state, where children as young as three years old were taken.
Separatist Insurgency
Another thread to Nigeria’s fraying security crisis are the burgeoning secessionist movements sprouting across Nigeria, most notably the Indigenous People of Biafra (Ipob). Ipob wants a collection of states in the south-east, mainly comprising people from the Igbo ethnic group, to secede and form the independent nation of Biafra.
The group was founded in 2014 by Nnamdi Kanu, who was recently arrested and is set to face trail on terrorism and treason charges. His arrest has left the group in disarray and severely dampened the impetus for Biafran independence.
Biafran secessionist activities had been escalating in recent years, often leading to violent clashes between Nigeria’s security forces and militia groups. The armed wing of Ipob – the Eastern Security Network – has been accused of killing a least 60 people in recent months, most of them police officers, although the group denies the allegations.
President Buhari has sought to rid Ipob and expunge any aspirations for a Biafran state. Last month he tweeted that “those misbehaving today” would be dealt with in “the language they will understand”. The post was removed by Twitter for violating its rules after Mr Buhari received backlash online.
Conclusion
The list above is in no sense exhaustive to all the contours comprising Nigeria’s security landscape. Organized criminal gangs, piracy and oil militants, plus security sector (policy and military) violence against civilians, further fractures the situation and impedes any progression towards peace. The multitude and diversity of threats present will demand a multi-dimensional response that is tailored to each context.