Nearly three weeks since protests began, cities across Colombia are still reeling from widespread violence that has seen as many as 42 dead and hundreds more missing in “clandestine detention centres”.
Anti-government protests across Colombia have now entered their third week. Ostensibly, the protests erupted over a proposed tax overhaul aimed at providing relief to the acute economic strain Colombia is experiencing from COVID-19. However, the withdrawal of this proposal on 3 May has done little to placate public anger, and protests have since morphed into a national outcry over rising poverty, unemployment and inequality.
The pandemic has cast a long shadow on Colombia’s state finances. Time Magazine reported yesterday that the country’s fiscal deficit has more than tripled from 2019 to 2020; raising concern that increasing headwinds to the Colombian economy will push the country towards a debt spiral, potentially compromising government credit ratings. Any subsequent rise in the cost of borrowing would seemingly render government plans to invest in healthcare, education, infrastructure or programmes to reduce poverty (all of which are now demanded by protestors) unfeasible.
President Ivan Duque’s proposal had attempted to mitigate this worsening economic crisis and stabilize the country fiscally. The reform, which looked to privatize healthcare and increase funding to Ingresso Solidario (a universal basic income social program), would’ve lowered the threshold for taxable salaries and introduced a myriad of other taxes incurred by lower- and middle-income workers.
The pushback was quick and galvanized discontent already fermenting under the economic toll of COVID-19. Colombia’s national poverty rate spiked from 37.5 percent in 2019 to about 50 percent in 2020; unemployment remains around 15 percent; and GDP has dropped by 6.8 percent according to Times Magazine. Furthermore, a third wave of COVID has swept the country, as cases have risen almost five-fold over the last two months, placing further stress on Colombia’s healthcare.
On April 28, unions and other protestors demanded the government rescind on its proposed tax reform. Although the reform was axed on May 2 and Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla resigned the following day, it has proven ineffective in quelling public anger as protests have continued with equal fervour and violence. The police crackdown has drawn increasing national and international condemnation for exhibiting excessive use of force.
Human Rights group Amnesty International have accused Colombian authorities of “excessive and unnecessary use of force against demonstrators, which has resulted in dozens of people being killed and injured, arbitrary detentions, acts of torture and sexual violence.” It cites “reports of people disappearing” which, according to Vice News, is likely to be the incarceration of protestors in clandestine detention centres deprived of basic legal protections. Furthermore, the organization has verified that Colombian police have used lethal weaponry in several incidents.
There are two threats inherent in these demonstrations that could upend national and regional stability: one is epidemiological and the other is more conventional. Although the threat of COVID-19 is now waning with the distribution of vaccines, the risk that protests will become “super-spreaders” and overwhelm Colombia’s healthcare system is especially pertinent given the country’s limited resources. The second risk is that these protests rouse revolt across Latin America in a domino effect. COVID-19 has exacerbated economic conditions across the region which could sow similar seeds of discontent and spur widespread anti-government movements.
“A change in the socio-economic system is needed,” says a demonstrator. “It’s as simple as that.” From what has transpired over the last three weeks, indeed this appears to be the only solution that can cultivate peace for the people of Colombia.
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